Gold Price Forecast: Will XAU/USD Hit New Highs After US NFP Report?

Gold Rally Continues Ahead of Key US Jobs Data

Gold prices have been on a tear, with XAU/USD soaring to $2,869, approaching the critical $2,900 psychological level. The metal has gained strength amid ongoing market uncertainty, and now all eyes are on today’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, set for release at 4 PM EAT.

A strong jobs report could boost the US dollar (USD) and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data may fuel another rally, potentially sending gold to fresh all-time highs.

Technical Analysis: Key Gold Price Levels to Watch

Support and Resistance Zones

• Immediate resistance: $2,900 – A break above could open the door to $2,950 and beyond.
• Key support levels: $2,791, $2,686, and $2,633 – If gold retreats, these levels could act as strong buying zones.
• Major resistance ahead: $3,000 – A psychological level that could trigger profit-taking.

Momentum Indicators

• MACD: Bullish momentum remains intact, with the MACD line at 9.95, above the signal line.
• RSI: Currently at 74.88, indicating that gold is approaching overbought territory. A pullback could be expected if buyers take profits.
• Volume: Surging 184K+, reflecting strong market interest in gold ahead of NFP.

Why is Gold Rallying? Key Market Drivers

1. US Economic Data Focus – Markets are anticipating the NFP report, which will influence Fed rate expectations.
2. Geopolitical Uncertainty – Safe-haven demand for gold remains strong amid ongoing global tensions.
3. Weaker USD Scenario – If NFP misses expectations, the US dollar could weaken, pushing gold even higher.
4. Inflation and Interest Rate Speculation – Investors are closely watching how the Federal Reserve responds to jobs data in its next rate decision.

NFP Scenarios: What Could Happen to Gold?

• If NFP is weaker than expected:
  • The US dollar may weaken, pushing gold above $2,900, possibly testing $2,950-$3,000.
  • Rate cut expectations could rise, making gold even more attractive.
• If NFP is stronger than expected:
  • The USD strengthens, putting pressure on gold, potentially leading to a drop toward $2,791-$2,686.
  • Treasury yields could rise, shifting investor focus to bonds over non-yielding gold.

Conclusion: Can Gold Break $2,900 After NFP?

Gold’s bullish momentum is strong, but today’s NFP report will be the real test. If the jobs data disappoints, expect a breakout toward $3,000. However, a stronger labor market could trigger short-term selling pressure.

For traders, watching the $2,900 level is crucial—a break higher could signal another leg up, while a rejection could lead to a healthy correction before gold resumes its uptrend.

Will gold hit new highs or pull back after NFP? Stay tuned—today’s data will set the tone!

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